Lots of economic data in today, with the quarterly GDP figure the biggest of them all. The 7.7% annualised rate sounds hunky-dory, especially from a Western perspective (the UK economy, for example, has still not approached its 2008 peak – it has had negative growth over the past six years), but the merest closer look provides a lot of worrying trends and fears of systemic failures. The whole basis for Chinese economic development over the past thirty years looks like it has come to a pretty juddering halt. (Though the tremors have been discernible for some time). The main players in the current setup are now hurting badly, as can be seen by their share performance. The state-owned banks (in several cases trading around net asset value, and which are trading around their 52-week low), both provide early portents of financial stress and are some of the main causes of the economic malaise. I am not usually so bearish, but recent trends seem to be adding up to a very worrying picture. Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang have a real job on their hands.
Fourteen of the major stocks (it’s hard to call them “blue chip”) fell on the day, while only three rose and two were flat. China Life Insurance showed the biggest decline, down 2.53% to RMB14.23, while Dongfeng Motor came next, going down 1.87% to HK$11.56. Only Agricultural Bank, CNOOC and China Construction Engineering came out of the day ahead, with CNOOC doing the best with a rise of 0.72% to HK$13.96.
The Shanghai Composite finally breached the 2000 level, closing down 13.70 points (-0.68%) to finish at 1,991.25. My prediction of sufficient share buy-backs to prop up the market were evidently wrong. It may be down to lack of ready cash on the part of the SOEs, but who can tell?
|Name||Price||Change||Mkt cap||52wk high||52wk low||EPS||P/E|
|China Construction Bank||3.9||-0.03 (-0.76%)||975,042.84M||5.19||3.8||CN¥0.85||4.61|
|Agricultural Bank||2.37||+0.01 (0.42%)||769,762.02M||3.28||2.35||CN¥0.50||4.72|
|Bank of China||2.46||-0.02 (-0.81%)||687,236.81M||3.26||2.45||CN¥0.53||4.63|
|China Mobile||76.75*||-1.10 (-1.41%)||1.54B||89.2||74.9||HK$8.19||9.37|
|Noble Group||1.01||-0.01 (-0.98%)||6,726.49M||1.27||0.785||SGD0.04||27.92|
|China State Construction||2.97||-0.01 (-0.34%)||89,100.00M||4.18||2.9||CN¥0.62||4.82|
|China Railway Construction||4.11||0.00 (0.00%)||50,707.30M||6.26||3.95||CN¥0.84||4.88|
|China Railway Group||2.38||0.00 (0.00%)||50,693.76M||3.36||2.3||CN¥0.44||5.43|
|SAIC Motor||12.48||-0.15 (-1.19%)||137,599.07M||19||11.83||CN¥2.05||6.08|
|China Life Insurance||14.23||-0.37 (-2.53%)||402,206.74M||22||12.88||CN¥0.97||14.72|
|Dongfeng Motor||11.56*||-0.22 (-1.87%)||99,602.35M||13.28||9.48||HK$1.38||8.4|
|China Shenhua||14.09||-0.14 (-0.98%)||280,244.76M||25.28||13.97||CN¥2.25||6.26|
|Ping An Insurance||40.75||-0.11 (-0.27%)||322,582.79M||53.27||31.69||CN¥3.45||11.81|
|China Telecom||3.62*||-0.04 (-1.09%)||292,975.16M||4.42||3.48||HK$0.26||14.02|
|China Communications Construction||3.8||+0.01 (0.26%)||61,463.99M||5.79||3.74||CN¥0.81||4.7|
|Bank of Communications||3.72||0.00 (0.00%)||276,257.35M||5.68||3.65||CN¥0.84||4.42|